The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to increase to 36% this year.

Boosted by continuous industrial policy support and the gradual release of consumer demand, the domestic new energy passenger vehicle market has shown strong growth characteristics, and sales in May hit a new high for the year. On June 5, the Passenger Federation announced that it is expected that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in my country will reach 8.5 million in 2023, and the sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense will reach 23.5 million. Reached 36%. The current operating conditions are basically in line with the forecast.

Some research institutions believe that a series of industrial policies issued by the government have released the consumption potential of new energy vehicles, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to pick up further.

Deliveries from major automakers rose compared to the previous month.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on June 5, in April this year, the export performance of complete vehicles was better than that of the previous month, and fell slightly from the previous month. increase, and a significant increase year-on-year. According to the statistical analysis data recently released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to April this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.291 million and 2.222 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%. The market share reached 27%. Among the main models of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles have achieved different levels of year-on-year growth in production and sales.

Judging from the latest May sales data disclosed by major car companies, the shipments of leading new energy car companies generally increased month-on-month.

According to the announcement released by Geely Automobile on June 5, the company's total car sales in May this year reached 120,053 units, a year-on-year increase of about 35%. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles (including battery replacement) in May was 24,124 units, a year-on-year increase of 53%. From January to May this year, the total sales volume of pure electric vehicles reached 108,906 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. A year-on-year increase of 64%.

In addition, major domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers such as BYD, GAC Aion, Weilai, and Leapmotor have also recently announced the delivery data of their new energy vehicles in May. According to the delivery and sales data disclosed by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC) according to the official data of some new energy vehicle brands, BYD delivered 240,000 vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 127% and a month-on-month increase of 14%. GAC Aion delivered 45,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 114% and a month-on-month increase of 10%. As a new force in car manufacturing, Li Auto has delivered more than 20,000 vehicles for three consecutive months.

Based on the delivery data in May, GGII analysis pointed out that leading new energy vehicle manufacturers have a significant role in stimulating the overall auto market. Companies such as BYD, GAC Aion, Ideal, Weilai, and Leapmotor have delivered more than 10,000 vehicles, and their delivery volumes have increased by more than 10% month-on-month. On the whole, the output of auto companies increased significantly in May, and the growth rate was generally close to 10% to 20%.

The China Travel Association pointed out on June 5 that the new energy vehicle market will show a gradual upward trend in 2023. With the launch of a large number of competitive new products and the intensification of price promotions, consumer demand is being gradually released. In May, the national new energy passenger vehicle market showed strong growth characteristics, and the overall automobile market continued the strong trend in April, with sales hitting a new high. According to estimates by the Passenger Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 670,000 units, an increase of 11% month-on-month and 59% year-on-year. It is estimated that from January to May, domestic auto companies will wholesale 2.78 million new energy passenger vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 46%.

Huaxi Securities believes that in May, the delivery of electric vehicles by many car companies has increased significantly compared with the previous month. With the improvement of downstream demand and the increase of new supply, the sales of electric vehicles continue to grow, driving the stabilization and improvement of the industrial chain.

Penetration is expected to continue to increase. Since the beginning of this year, good news has been circulating frequently in the new energy vehicle industry. The executive meeting of the State Council held recently discussed policies and measures to promote the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to continue and optimize the new energy vehicle purchase tax reduction policy, build a high-quality charging infrastructure system, further stabilize market expectations, optimize the consumption environment, and fully release the consumption potential of new energy vehicles. Industry insiders believe that the extension of the car purchase tax reduction and exemption policy is expected to inject new momentum into China's booming new energy vehicle industry, and provide new opportunities for the performance and technological progress of enterprises in the entire industry chain including complete vehicles and power batteries. and charging piles. Everbright Securities stated that the vehicle purchase tax policy mentioned in the executive meeting of the State Council will mainly help to stabilize the price system of new energy vehicles next year (not excluding policy differentiation for some models or price ranges of new energy vehicles). If the preferential tax policy continues to be implemented, it will ease the pressure on auto companies to reduce costs. New energy vehicles may further enhance product competitiveness through intelligence and other aspects. Combined with optimized industrial support, the potential is huge. Continue to increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles for a long time.

Huaxi Securities believes that with the strong support of policies to promote the application of new energy vehicles and the continuous enrichment of economical and practical new energy vehicle models, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to increase. This will drive the expansion of demand in the entire industry chain and maintain medium and long-term high growth prospects. In addition, the development of vehicles and the development of charging facilities complement each other and promote each other. With the continuous increase in the number of new energy vehicles and policy support, the construction of domestic charging and swapping infrastructure is expected to continue to improve.

The industrial chain continues to recover With the improvement of terminal demand, the new energy vehicle industry chain is also continuing to recover. According to data released by the Shanghai Steel Federation on June 5, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,500 yuan/ton on that day, with an average price of 30,750 yuan/ton, while the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,500 yuan/ton. 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 29,250 yuan/ton. In terms of material prices, after rebounding from a low of 180,000 yuan/ton in late April, the price of lithium carbonate rose again in May, breaking through the 300,000 yuan/ton mark.

At the same time, the prices of other materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate materials are gradually stabilizing.