Industry Experts & Enterprises Jointly Analyze Auto Market and Explore Consumption Growth Opportunities

  On July 13, the high-end seminar themed Analysis of Auto Market Situation and Prospect of Consumption Opportunities, hosted by Chebaihui Research Institute, was held in Beijing. The seminar was co-chaired by Shi Jianhua, Vice Chairman of Chebaihui Research Institute and Dean of Chebai Think Tank Research Institute, and Wang Hewu, Professor at the School of Vehicle and Mobility, Tsinghua University, and Director of the Zero-Carbon Transportation Research Center under the Institute of Carbon Neutrality. Zhang Yongwei, Chairman of Chebaihui Research Institute, delivered the opening speech.

  The event was attended by experts and scholars from institutions including the Development Research Center of the State Council, the National Information Center, the China Automotive Industry Consulting Committee, the China Automobile Dealers Association and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute, as well as more than 50 corporate representatives from BMW, Volkswagen, Xpeng, Seres, JD Auto Service, Zhongsheng Group, Tengyi Research Institute, Mobility Global and other enterprises. Participants held in-depth discussions on topics covering macroeconomic trends, market situation assessment, shifts in consumption trends and pathways for high-quality industrial development.

  The seminar delved deep into the challenges confronting all links of the current industrial chain. Complete vehicle manufacturers are generally under heavy operational pressure amid sliding industrial profit margins. The marginal effect of boosting sales via price cuts is diminishing; coupled with surging R&D investment and volatile costs of upstream raw materials, automakers are faced with a tough test of balancing sales volume and profit. Dealers are troubled by inverted terminal prices and excessive inventory levels. The stable and sound development of dealership channels is critical to safeguarding consumer rights and after-sales service quality.

  From the product perspective, the market boasts an abundant supply of vehicle models, yet the proportion of best-selling models remains low. Accelerated model iteration requires the industry to strike a balance between R&D expenditure and market absorption capacity. Component suppliers face prolonged payback cycles for innovation investment, while the after-sales service system for new energy vehicles still needs further refinement. A consensus is taking shape across the sector that the industry is shifting from scale expansion to quality-driven competition.

  In the short term, most experts anticipate marginal improvements in the market in the second half of the year. Driven by the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the low base effect from the same period last year, a market recovery is likely in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year performance to an overall pattern of "weak start followed by strong finish". Under an optimistic scenario, total annual new vehicle sales are projected to range between 32 million and 33 million units, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to approach 70% by year-end.

  In the medium and long term, the industry is forecast to enter a stable stock market cycle by 2027, with growth momentum shifting to dual drivers of replacement demand and overseas exports. After 2029, once market adjustments are fully completed, the sector is expected to resume normalized growth of around 2%, with competition focusing shifting from scale expansion to structural optimization and quality upgrading. Key variables shaping the future automotive market include consumer confidence among residents, price trends of core raw materials, intensity of consumption stimulus policies, and the pace of industrial restructuring and market clearance. From a longer-term perspective, China still has substantial room for growth in vehicle ownership per 1,000 residents.

  The seminar identified notable structural opportunities on the consumption side. In terms of consumer behavior, middle-aged buyers mostly demand vehicle replacement, which has driven continuous upward shifts in average market vehicle prices.

Young consumers prioritize product experience and intelligent features, and make purchasing decisions in a more rational manner. Auto consumption is transitioning from first-time purchase-led growth to replacement-led growth, with buyers attaching greater value to technological merits of products rather than mere brand prestige. The sinking market maintains steady demand, while consumption related to new energy vehicles sees robust growth.

  The automotive aftermarket holds promising potential: the current penetration rate of auto modification stands at merely 5%, far below that of mature international markets, leaving vast room for development. Scenario-based consumption such as RV travel and car rental is on the rise, while used car circulation and replacement demand also serve as vital sources of incremental growth.

  During the seminar, participants put forward systematic proposals for advancing high-quality industrial development. At the enterprise level, manufacturers should pursue differentiated development, identify their unique market niches, rationally pace R&D investment, and transform business models from standalone vehicle sales to full-lifecycle service provision, prioritizing cash flow security and product quality in daily operations.

  For consumption promotion, attendees suggested further optimizing the auto consumption environment, refining automotive financial support systems, and streamlining used car trading and circulation processes. On the supply side, stricter product quality supervision should be enforced, manufacturers guided to produce in line with actual market demand, and healthy competition fostered within the industry.

On internationalization, the sector should accelerate the transition from complete vehicle export trade to localized overseas layout, participate in global competition via collaborative approaches, and simultaneously strengthen compliance capabilities and overseas service systems. It is necessary to continuously deepen Sino-foreign technological cooperation, expand high-level opening-up, establish guidance mechanisms for healthy competition, improve institutional systems covering the entire industrial chain, and advance the sound and sustainable development of the automotive industry.